Mobile Insights

The IDFA is Dead

mbenning — Fri, 06 Aug 2021 21:32:01 +0000

The IDFA is Dead

By Peter Farago, Vice President of Flurry

mbenning Fri, 08/06/2021 - 14:32

2021-08-06

Tags

Mobile Insights

ios 14

It’s been about a year since Apple dropped the bombshell that it would deprecate its Identifier for Advertisers (IDFA), aiming to bolster consumer privacy. At the same time, this also severely hamstrings how mobile app developers monetize through advertising. The net result of this has been deep-felt industry grief, and we’re still working through the various stages.

First, there was denial. The early chatter was whether Apple was really committed to this. When the company delayed the rollout of their new policy from late 2020 to Spring of 2021, many hoped Apple would ultimately reverse direction. When Apple stayed the course, the conversation quickly shifted to salvaging as much IDFA footprint as possible by maximizing opt-in rates. Some app developers and other companies continue to cite that early opt-in numbers may indicate some glimmer of promise. Unfortunately our data shows the opposite, and more is shared later in this post.

Many in the industry also entered the bargaining stage of grief: Maybe instead of IDFA, we can use fingerprinting? Apple has made it increasingly clear that this isn’t an option. Blocking the use of IP addresses in iOS 14.6 and rejecting some apps that collect IP addresses have started sobering up the ecosystem.

Calling the Time of Death

Rather than continuing to cling tenaciously to a model that depends on individual-level identifiers, it’s time to accept this is no longer possible and move forward. We need to face the fact that the rosiest interpretation of opt-in numbers is both inaccurate and irrelevant. Since Flurry has detected that over 80% of all iOS devices are now upgraded to iOS 14.5 or later, the data is in. And with that, I am calling the IDFA time of death as August 2021.

Data Shows the Flatline

Since the April release of iOS 14.5, the mobile app industry has attempted to read scant tea leaves to predict what things will look like once all Apple users are exposed to App Tracking Transparency (ATT). Some in the industry reported pockets of opt-in numbers as high as 40%.¹ However, Flurry’s broad data set doesn’t support that percentage. Based on aggregated insights from 2 billion mobile devices, Flurry is measuring a worldwide opt-in rate of 25% and a U.S. rate of 17% among only those users who have been exposed to the ATT opt-in prompt.²

When we expand beyond just those devices that received a prompt -- looking at the entire device base -- only 13% are opted in. Here’s how it breaks down:³

3% cannot be asked to be tracked (“restricted” status)⁴
48% have not yet been prompted by apps, putting them into a default not-tracked status⁵
40% have denied tracking via the prompt or the iOS privacy settings⁶

Even if the remaining 48% of users, who haven’t yet been prompted, are asked to accept tracking, it would bring the 9% of all iOS 14+ users who can be tracked up to just 21%.⁷ That final tally would still be too small to support robust user-level targeting and attribution.

With iOS version 14.5+ uptake now at 81% globally, the long-term picture is much clearer.⁸ Check out the chart below which shows iOS SDK adoption across the device-base.

Counting drops of water in the desert

Arguing over the small differences in how we measure ATT opt-in rates is like counting drops of water in a growing desert. Beyond the conclusive data already available, another significant issue is that 29% of users have turned off setting on their devices to “Allow Apps to Request to Track.”¹⁰ This means that many devices will never get a prompt asking for permission within those apps. We estimated this figure by looking at the percentage of users who “denied” tracking across apps when no prompt was actually delivered. Around 3% of iOS 14+ users worldwide have opt-in prompts turned off by default—such as in the case of devices owned by minors.¹¹

And beyond the opt-in trend, we need to acknowledge Apple’s stalwart intentions to follow through on all of this. If Apple doesn’t get privacy managed the way it envisions through its current efforts, we believe it will keep iterating until it is satisfied. Make no mistake, Apple is committed. All you have to do is look at its recent slick prime-time ad which shows how they come to the rescue in a dystopian world where third-party providers shamelessly siphon any and all data from their iPhone users. Apple has made privacy a core brand value proposition.

Accepting a post-IDFA landscape

It’s time to take a cold, hard look at the IDFA writing on the wall. As an industry, we need to accelerate past the depression and anger stages of IDFA grief. We must recognize that things are going to be different now and move to acceptance so that we can figure out how to thrive in a post-IDFA landscape.

There are promising ways to help rebuild audience targeting and addressability now that the data burden has shifted from the demand side to the supply side. In short, app developers need a scalable way to segment and offer access to their users at the cohort level rather than the individual device level. Meaningful monetization is possible for those who can start adjusting now. We have been investing heavily in this area since last year, and are ready to help publishers. We look forward to sharing more news soon. Keep checking back or just ask us how.

¹ Rosenfelder, Shani, “Initial data indicates ATT opt-in rates are much higher than anticipated––at least 39%,” appsflyer.com, 8 April 2021, appsflyer.com/blog/att-opt-in-rates-higher/.

^{2, 9} Laziuk, Estelle, “iOS Opt-in rate - weekly updates since launch,” Flurry.com, 5 May 2021, flurry.com/blog/ios-14-5-opt-in-rate-idfa-app-tracking-transparency-weekly/. Updated 20 July 2021

^{3-8, 10-11} Verizon Media, Internal data, 19 July 2021

iOS 14 Opt-in Rate - Weekly Updates Since Launch

edanilo — Mon, 24 May 2021 20:42:15 +0000

iOS 14 Opt-in Rate - Weekly Updates Since Launch

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Mon, 05/24/2021 - 13:42

2021-05-25

Tags

Mobile Insights

Apple

Last Updated Sept 6, 2021 Updated Weekly

For the past decade, mobile apps have been able to rely on Apple’s Identifier for Advertiser (IDFA) to track users across other companies' apps and websites for targeting and advertising purposes. With Apple's release of iOS 14.5 at the end of April, iOS app developers are now required to request permission to track their users beyond the app in use. With opt-in rates expected to be low, this change is anticipated to impact the entire mobile ecosystem and create challenges for personalized advertising and attribution, impacting the $189 billion mobile advertising industry worldwide.

Flurry Analytics, from Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across 2 billion mobile devices per month. In the below report, we share the weekly opt-in rate as well as the percentage of users with ‘restricted’ app tracking, both in the U.S. and worldwide, following the launch of iOS 14.5.

Our Methodology

Flurry determines opt-in rate as ‘Authorized' divided by ('Authorized' + 'Denied'). Restricted app tracking rate is calculated as 'Restricted' divided by ('Authorized' + 'Denied' + 'Restricted '+ ‘Not Determined’).

These app tracking statuses are defined by Apple, and may be summarized as follows:

‘Authorized’ represents app users who tapped 'Allow Tracking' via the AppTrackingTransparency (ATT) prompt.
‘Denied’ represents two groups of app users, which Apple does not separate:
1. Users who saw the prompt and tapped 'Ask App Not to Track’. These users denied tracking for an app via the ATT prompt.
2. Users who went to iOS Privacy Settings and toggled 'Allow Apps to Request to Track’ OFF. These users denied tracking for all apps at once, preventing apps from presenting the prompt.
‘Restricted’ represents app users with 'Allow Apps to Request to Track' setting OFF and DISABLED. Apple disables this setting for devices with Apple IDs associated with minors, for example. These users never have a choice to select a tracking option and cannot be tracked by default.
‘Not Determined’ represents app users who have not seen the prompt and who have toggled 'Allow Apps to Request to Track' setting ON. These users have not been asked yet to select a tracking option and are by default not being tracked.

We calculate the opt-in rate both overall and across apps that have displayed the ATT prompt. We estimate the set of apps that have displayed the ATT prompt by including only apps with more than 1% of active users using iOS 14 versions and above who have authorized tracking. We determine the percentage of users who have authorized tracking as 'Authorized' divided by ('Authorized' + 'Denied' + 'Restricted' + 'Not Determined'). We set a threshold of 1% for the proportion of users who have authorized tracking to exclude internal tests or very limited end-user ATT prompt rollouts.

How do we count app users?

We count the number of Flurry IDs based on the IDFV that are using iOS versions in which the ATT framework is available (iOS 14.0 and above). If a user opts in ('Authorized' tracking) for one app, and opts out ('Denied' tracking) for another app, we consider it as one app user who opts in, and another app user who opts out. In other words, we count app users, not individual users, which means that a single user who selects a tracking option across 2 apps will be counted 2 times.

What do these metrics mean?

Opt-in rate across all apps: Percentage of app users who allow app tracking among app users using iOS 14 versions and above who have chosen to either allow or deny app tracking. Note that denying tracking can be done for a given app via the prompt or for all apps by toggling 'Allow Apps to Request to Track’ OFF in the iOS Privacy Settings. This metric provides an industry-level view into the proportion of app users who have chosen to authorize vs. deny app tracking among all app users who have already selected a tracking option.

Opt-in rate across apps that have displayed the prompt: Percentage of app users who allow app tracking among app users using iOS 14 versions and above who have chosen to either allow or deny app tracking, either directly by going into the iOS Privacy Settings, or when prompted by an app, across apps that have displayed the ATT prompt. This metric is useful for app developers looking to benchmark the opt-in rate of their app as it is calculated specifically across apps that have displayed the prompt.

Restricted app tracking rate: Percentage of app users using iOS 14 versions and above who do not have a choice to select a tracking option and cannot be tracked by default.

Data

Make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog, Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest mobile industry trends.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

iOS 14.5 Opt-in Rate - Daily Updates Since Launch

edanilo — Thu, 29 Apr 2021 17:35:35 +0000

iOS 14.5 Opt-in Rate - Daily Updates Since Launch

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Thu, 04/29/2021 - 10:35

2021-04-29

Tags

Mobile Insights

Apple

Last Updated May 25, 2021 (Weekly Updates Here)

Flurry Analytics, from Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across 2 billion mobile devices per month. In the below report, we've shared the daily opt-in rate as well as the percentage of users with ‘restricted’ app tracking, both in the U.S. and worldwide, for the first three weeks following the launch of iOS 14.5.

Our Methodology

These app tracking statuses are defined by Apple, and may be summarized as follows:

‘Authorized’ represents app users who tapped 'Allow Tracking' via the AppTrackingTransparency (ATT) prompt.
‘Denied’ represents two groups of app users, which Apple does not separate:
1. Users who saw the prompt and tapped 'Ask App Not to Track’. These users denied tracking for an app via the ATT prompt.
2. Users who went to iOS Privacy Settings and toggled 'Allow Apps to Request to Track’ OFF. These users denied tracking for all apps at once, preventing apps from presenting the prompt.
‘Restricted’ represents app users with 'Allow Apps to Request to Track' setting OFF and DISABLED. Apple disables this setting for devices with Apple IDs associated with minors, for example. These users never have a choice to select a tracking option and cannot be tracked by default.
‘Not Determined’ represents app users who have not seen the prompt and who have toggled 'Allow Apps to Request to Track' setting ON. These users have not been asked yet to select a tracking option and are by default not being tracked.

How do we count app users?

What do these metrics mean?

Restricted app tracking rate: Percentage of app users using iOS 14 versions and above who do not have a choice to select a tracking option and cannot be tracked by default.

Data

Make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog, Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest mobile industry trends.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

How Quickly Will Users Upgrade to iOS 14.5 with IDFA-limiting App Tracking Transparency?

edanilo — Mon, 19 Apr 2021 23:26:34 +0000

How Quickly Will Users Upgrade to iOS 14.5 with IDFA-limiting App Tracking Transparency?

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Mon, 04/19/2021 - 16:26

2021-04-20

Tags

Mobile Insights

Apple

iOS 14.5 is expected to impact the entire mobile app industry, from developers to advertisers. As we await Apple’s final launch date, we uncover how quickly you should expect users to upgrade to iOS 14.5 by reviewing the adoption curve of past iOS releases.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, Flurry analyzed the adoption rates of the past four iOS versions after they launched. Let’s start by reviewing the worldwide adoption rate of the latest operating system version currently in production, iOS 14.4.2.

In the chart above, we show the percentage of active iPhones using iOS 14.4.2. With this version fixing a vulnerability that permits malicious web content to perform universal cross-site scripting, iOS 14.4.2 was rapidly adopted, reaching 35% of iPhones within the first week of launch, and 58% in the following week. In the third week of launch, the adoption rate slowed down, increasing by only 6 percentage points versus 18 points the week before.

Let’s next review the worldwide adoption of the earlier version iOS 14.4.1, which also fixes a critical vulnerability, allowing a malicious web page to perform remote code execution in WebKit.

In the chart above, we show the adoption rate from launch day until the launch of the next iOS version. Adoption of iOS 14.4.1 started spiking in its second week of launch, reaching 35% of iPhone devices. In the third week, adoption continued to climb and quickly reached 55% of iPhones worldwide.

Based on the two iOS versions reviewed so far, when Apple releases new security fixes, Apple users adopt them rapidly.

Let’s next review the adoption of the earlier iOS 14.4 version. This release brings more changes than the two versions reviewed so far. It adds 3 new features and 6 bug fixes.

The adoption of iOS 14.4 resembles that of its prior version, with a steep spike in the second week of launch, reaching 39% of iPhones worldwide. Adoption continued to climb in the third week and then slowed down in the following weeks, hovering around 70%.

Let’s finally review the adoption of the earlier iOS 14.3 version, which brings even more changes: 19 new features and 11 bug fixes. With that many updates, we think this version has the most similar properties to iOS 14.5.

Compared to prior versions reviewed so far, mass adoption of iOS 14.3 seems to have been delayed, spiking to 57% adoption in the fifth week since launch. We think depending on the type of release, especially the number of new features a version brings, Apple could be throttling the number of users who get prompted to upgrade, delaying the spike in mass adoption.

Summary

When Apple releases a new iOS version, there isn’t a consistent pattern in the rate of adoption. Our data shows that the adoption curve looks different across the past four iOS releases, with mass adoption picking up from one to five weeks after launch day.
Depending on the type of release, we think Apple could be throttling the number of users who get prompted to upgrade, impacting adoption rates. This means that adoption uptake could be affected by Apple bucket-testing its release. If this is the case, once the release is made Generally Available (GA), there is consistently a steep spike in adoption, which indicates that Apple users consistently upgrade quickly once they GA a version.
We anticipate iOS 14.5 adoption to most resemble that of iOS 14.3, which brought the largest number of new features of the past four versions. We also think that the industry-impacting changes brought about by iOS 14.5 will prompt Apple to bucket-test, resulting in an initially slow adoption, followed by a rapid mass adoption once they GA.

Make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog, Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest reports on the mobile industry.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

Vivo Pacing to Become India’s #1 Smartphone Retailer in 2021

LisaMoshfegh — Wed, 07 Apr 2021 05:45:54 +0000

Vivo Pacing to Become India’s #1 Smartphone Retailer in 2021

By: Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Tue, 04/06/2021 - 22:45

2021-04-07

Tags

Mobile Insights

India is the world’s second-largest smartphone market, only behind China, and world’s fastest growing smartphone market. Considering the rate of new smartphone adoption, Indian smartphone preferences could have a global impact. In a previous blog post, Flurry reported on the increasing dominance of Chinese smartphone manufacturers in India at the expense of Samsung and local Indian manufacturers. In this report, we’ll revisit smartphone market share in India by OEM, as well factors driving growth in this market.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing insights from 2 billion devices per month. Let’s begin by reviewing smartphone market share in India over the past 5 quarters.

Vivo’s Steady Rise to #2

In the chart above, we plot the market share of the top five smartphone manufacturers in India over the past five quarters. While Xiaomi (in green) maintains its position as the leading smartphone manufacturer in India, vivo’s adoption rates (in purple) have increased more than 5 points throughout the past year, positioning it neck and neck with Xiaomi for the pole position. Xiaomi’s market share increased slightly more than one point, leaving it only 0.5 points ahead of vivo as of Q1 2021. If vivo continues to grow at these levels, it will overtake Xiaomi as the leading smartphone manufacturer in India as soon as Q2 2021. In contrast, Samsung’s share dropped from 19% to 15%, and the world's leading smartphone manufacturer is now fighting to retain third spot against an aggressive OPPO which has consistently maintained its market share near 15%. Apple holds a distant fifth position, but saw its market share decrease from 3.8% to 2.3% despite launching the Apple Store in India in the Fall of 2020.

The Power of Advertising

While catching a consumer’s attention is never easy, vivo does have a lot of firepower—in the form of advertising dollars—at its disposal. Per a Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020, vivo spent more on advertising in India than any other smartphone manufacturer, and was the 7th largest advertiser in the country across all industries. Since 2016, vivo has replaced PepsiCo as the title sponsor for the Indian Premier League (IPL) as well as hired some of India’s most popular celebrities such as Aamir Khan, Ranveer Singh and Virat Kohli as brand ambassadors.

Next, let’s look at the change in smartphone market share by state to identify the regions driving new smartphone growth in the country.

In the chart above, we plot the states in India based on their year-over-year change in smartphone market share and GDP Per Capita. The x-axis is the GDP Per Capita with an increasing order from left to right. The y-axis is the YoY Change in smartphone market share increasing from bottom to top.

States with the Lowest Per Capita Income See the Highest Growth

Most of the states experiencing the largest smartphone growth are in the upper left region, where GDP Per Capita is below the national average of $2,030. The smartphone penetration rate in India is 25%, which is far below the global average of 46%. Much of this low penetration is because those living in rural and less affluent areas in India have been slower to adopt smartphones than those in the major city centers. However, this rapid growth in rural regions also provides the biggest opportunity for smartphone manufacturers to ship more devices and for app developers to benefit from a large population of people newly discovering the world of mobile apps.

Much of the decrease in smartphone market share is seen in the states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the lower right-hand quadrant. This is likely driven by the major metropolitan cities in those regions, such as Mumbai, Gurgaon, etc. where the smartphone penetration is already quite high and hence future growth opportunities are limited compared to more rural areas. Additionally, due to the pandemic many of the affluent workers in these cities have returned to their hometowns, which shifts their smartphone usage to another region. For an advertiser in the app economy, it is an important shift to keep in mind as they allocate their marketing budgets and don’t want to lose out on affluent smartphone users who are no longer living in the larger cities.

With its large population, low smartphone penetration rate and rapid smartphone growth, the Indian smartphone market is positioned to shape the global app economy in the years to come. We’ll continue to monitor shifts in market share and smartphone adoption rates, both in India and throughout the world. For more mobile industry insights, make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog and on Twitter and LinkedIn.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

iPhone 12 Pro Appeals to Photography Enthusiasts

edanilo — Wed, 31 Mar 2021 15:40:46 +0000

iPhone 12 Pro Appeals to Photography Enthusiasts

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Wed, 03/31/2021 - 08:40

2021-03-31

Tags

Apple

Samsung

Mobile Insights

In the past year, there's been an influx of mobile devices that tout various advances in camera technology. To help you identify which new devices are uniquely suited for photography, we reveal the smartphone model that photography enthusiasts are adopting most.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, we focus on Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy devices that launched during 2020. Note that we don’t review the latest Galaxy S21 line, as its 2021 launch two months ago is too recent for us to assess lasting consumer preferences. First, Flurry looked at U.S. mobile app users active in the past 3 months, which we refer to as the “general population.” We then defined photography enthusiasts as the subset of mobile users active on professional photo editing apps. Let’s start by reviewing the install base of the iPhone 12 series among photography enthusiasts compared to the general population.

In the chart above, we show smartphone preferences across the iPhone 12 line among the general population in the top row compared to photography enthusiasts in the bottom row. We show the share captured by device, and color code each segment by device price point. For example, the iPhone 12 Pro is a device that captures the greatest share difference among photo enthusiasts (33%) compared to the general population (23%), and it’s color coded a medium blue denoting a midrange price of around $1,000. With a more advanced camera for just $200 more than the base iPhone 12 model, the iPhone 12 Pro camera features appear to resonate among photo enthusiasts. The iPhone 12 Pro Max, which is also the most popular iPhone 12 device, appeals slightly more to photo enthusiasts (44%) than to the general population (41%).

Let’s next review the install base of the Galaxy S20 series among photography enthusiasts versus the general population.

The chart above shows that photography enthusiasts and the general population share the same order of smartphone preferences in the Galaxy S20 line, albeit in different percentages. Their first choice is the lower-priced Galaxy S20, followed by the midrange priced Galaxy S20+. The least adopted model is the premium Galaxy S20 Ultra. Despite having more advanced front- and rear-facing cameras, the Galaxy S20 Ultra’s premium price tag seems to deter both the general population and photography enthusiasts from electing it as their first choice.

While both photography enthusiasts and the general population’s preferred model is the lower-priced Galaxy S20, we observe the opposite trend in the iPhone 12 line. The most premium model, the iPhone 12 Pro Max, is the most popular phone among both photography enthusiasts and the general population. We think this difference could be due to the Galaxy S20 line being more expensive than the iPhone 12 series, with the lower-priced Galaxy S20 model being as expensive as the midrange iPhone 12 Pro model. This difference could also result from Apple and Samsung having different customer profiles.

Note that for both the iPhone 12 and Galaxy S20 series, photography enthusiasts tend to adopt more premium-priced phones with higher-end cameras than the general population. As a result, photography enthusiasts seem to be less price-sensitive than the rest of the population, or the extent to which they value the high-end camera supersedes their sensitivity to price.

Summary

In the iPhone 12 line, the premium-priced iPhone 12 Pro Max is the most adopted smartphone by the general U.S. population and photography enthusiasts alike. By contrast, the lowest-priced base Galaxy S20 model is the most preferred phone in the Galaxy S20 series.
Among smartphones in the iPhone 12 and Galaxy S20 series, the iPhone 12 Pro is the only model that photography enthusiasts rank higher than the general population. It is the second most adopted model in the iPhone 12 line among photography enthusiasts, while it ranks as the third most adopted phone in the general population. The iPhone 12 Pro model therefore uniquely appeals to photography enthusiasts and appears to be particularly well suited for photography.

Make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog, Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest reports on smartphone industry trends.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung

iPhone 12 Outperforms iPhone 12 Pro Max in China

LisaMoshfegh — Mon, 22 Mar 2021 18:51:17 +0000

iPhone 12 Outperforms iPhone 12 Pro Max in China

By Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Mon, 03/22/2021 - 11:51

2021-03-22

Tags

Apple

Mobile Insights

In Apple’s most recent earnings call, they reported 64% of their record-breaking 111.4 billion in revenue came from international markets. After the United States, China is Apple’s second largest smartphone market, which should come as no surprise considering the world’s most populated country is also the world’s largest smartphone market. For this report, we’ll analyze iPhone adoption trends in China over the past several years with an emphasis on 2020’s iPhone 12 series.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing insights from 2 billion devices per month. Let’s begin by reviewing the current share of Apple’s iPhone install base in China as of February 2021.

In the chart above, we list the top 15 iPhone devices in the Chinese market as of February 2021, by share of install base. The iPhone 11, the base model released in 2019, is the most popular iPhone in China with 13.4% of the total iPhone install base, followed by 2017’s iPhone X with 10.5%. Older iPhone models such as iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 8 Plus also make the top 5, with their smaller counterparts iPhone 7 and iPhone 8 ranking at the 8th and 12th place respectively. Amongst the newer iPhone 12 lineup, the base iPhone 12 has captured the most share at 5.9%, followed by iPhone 12 Pro Max (4.2%) and iPhone 12 Pro (2.4%). The iPhone 12 mini failed to make the list of top 15 iPhone models as it only captured 0.5% of the total iPhone market in China.

Let’s next look at the share of iPhone models by device age, and how it has changed over the last year.

In the side-by-side pie charts above, we present the age of iPhone devices held by Chinese consumers in February 2021 on the left, and February of 2020 on the right. The share of people holding phones for longer than 4 years has increased from 23% to 31% in the past year. People might be able to use their old iPhone devices longer due to better battery management offered by Apple through their Battery Health tool which supports iPhone 6 and later. Also, Apple substantially increased prices of new iPhone models since the launch of iPhone X in 2017, which might be leading people to wait longer for their next smartphone upgrade. Of course, COVID-19 impacted the economy and forced Apple to close retail stores for several months, which also could have delayed or prevented people from upgrading.

On the other hand, the share of people with iPhone devices less than one year old increased 3 percentage points to 14% in February 2021. This indicates that more people upgraded to the iPhone 12 lineup this cycle compared to the iPhone 11 series last year.

Next, let’s look at the share of new device activations by iPhone series over the last four years.

In the chart above, we see how the share of new device activations has changed since 2017, by iPhone series. The share of the iPhone 6S series and older, represented in light blue, has decreased dramatically since 2017, while the share of iPhone 7 series (light green) and iPhone 8 series (orange) has not changed significantly. Even in 2021, they are still capturing 14% and 12% of all new iPhone activations, respectively. Since the iPhone 8 series launched, Apple has made substantial changes to their devices, including larger screen sizes, removal of the home button, and higher prices, which may deter some people from upgrading their phones to the newest models.

As of February 2021, the iPhone 12 series accounts for 25% of new iPhone device activations in China. But what’s interesting is that the iPhone X series is the second most popular lineup, capturing 19% of new activations in China and outperforming the newer iPhone 11 series by 2 percentage points.

Lastly, let’s review how the iPhone 12 series has performed in China.

In the chart above, we illustrate the share of each device in the iPhone 12 series from October 2020 through February 2021. The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro were launched in October 2020 followed by iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini in November 2020. Since launch, the iPhone 12, in green, has consistently been the most popular device in the iPhone 12 lineup, followed by iPhone 12 Pro Max, in purple. This is a reversal of the trend seen in the United States, where iPhone 12 Pro Max outshined the iPhone 12. Additionally, since coming down from the initial spike at launch, the iPhone 12 is consistently gaining share in China, whereas the other three devices in the lineup are flat or declining. In 2021 alone, the iPhone 12 has gained 4 percentage points, almost entirely at the expense of the iPhone 12 Pro Max.

The other trends in the iPhone 12 lineup are more similar to those seen in the United States market. The iPhone 12 Pro Max has outsold its smaller counterpart, the iPhone 12 Pro, in both China and the United States, and iPhone 12 mini has failed to pick up much market share in either country. As per a recent report from Nikkei Asia, Apple will halt production of the iPhone 12 mini sometime in 2021 by 70% or more, further indicating that people may not be willing to pay top dollar for smartphones with a smaller screen.

Based on Apple’s record-breaking fourth quarter and the increasing revenue coming from international markets, China will continue to be essential to Apple’s future growth opportunities. For more mobile industry insights, make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog and on Twitter and LinkedIn.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

Spiritually Remote: How the Pandemic Disrupted America’s Practice of Faith on Mobile

edanilo — Fri, 12 Mar 2021 06:11:47 +0000

Spiritually Remote: How the Pandemic Disrupted America’s Practice of Faith on Mobile

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Thu, 03/11/2021 - 22:11

2021-03-12

Tags

Mobile Insights

App Category Insights

When the coronavirus pandemic hit, U.S. states issued restrictions on social gatherings, forcing houses of worship across the country to shut down. Religious leaders adapted to these restrictions by bringing worship services and rituals online, in ways that keep religious communities engaged and connected, despite being physically apart. As a result, mobile apps and streaming platforms, once built as a supplement to in-person religious gatherings, became the primary point of connection for many congregations. In this report, we examine how the pandemic has disrupted the way Americans practice their faith on mobile, through the usage of bible apps.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across more than 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, Flurry measured mobile usage of bible apps using the median number of sessions across apps. This helps us understand how usage has evolved on average over time, without being heavily influenced by a highly popular app in our sample.

An Initial Surge, And Subsequent Slump

Let’s start by looking at how usage of bible apps has shifted during the pandemic.

In the chart above, we show daily usage of mobile bible apps from January 2020 through February 2021. Each rise and fall across that topography shows how bible usage cycles between Sundays and other days of the week, with Sunday usage spiking. Within the blue area, we identify four time periods:

Normal: Under normal circumstances, people check their digital bible on average 155% more on Sundays than during the rest of the week. This is because people mainly use their mobile bible app during worship services to access and read scripture, according to the National Congregations study. For the dominant religion in the United States, Christianity, worship services take place on Sundays — hence these repeated spikes on Sundays.
Orders: In mid-March, U.S. states began rolling out shelter-in-place orders following the National Emergency declared over the coronavirus outbreak. As part of these orders, houses of worship were required to close. When people could no longer attend their congregation in-person, usage of bible apps grew in unprecedented ways, doubling within a month. This rise in religious practice aligns with about one third of Americans sharing that they frequently read scriptures to help cope with the stresses of the pandemic, according to a survey by Pew Research. In addition, a surge in usage of bible apps isn’t that surprising as there was a novelty to online religion, which went from being one option to being the only option to practice faith during challenging times.

With most people ordered to stay home all days of the week, our data also shows that the normal schedule with spiking usage on Sundays changed considerably. With in-person worship newly banned, people were no longer engaging with their digital bible on Sundays as distinctively as during normal times.
Post-Orders: At the end of April, as the lockdown and lack of in-person gatherings was wearing on, the novelty of practicing faith on mobile appeared to wear off. Our data shows that bible app usage dropped by half compared to peak usage during orders. Most regular religious attenders said that their congregation began to stream or record its services around that time, according to survey data by Pew research. And 72% of regular worshippers watched these virtual religious services. As a result, we think the worship streaming experience, which helps bring a greater sense of community, took over some of the bible study time on mobile.
New Normal: Since early September, there has been a return to a distinct cyclicality between Sunday and other days of the week, during which Americans check their bible app 71% more on Sundays. In this New Normal, some congregations have reopened with limited capacity, which could explain the return of bible usage spikes during in-person worship services on Sundays.

In-Person Worship Banned, Faith on Mobile Down

Now that we’ve looked at how Americans changed their bible reading habits on mobile throughout the pandemic, we quantify how bible app usage has changed due to the pandemic. To estimate that shift, we compare usage during the most recent “New Normal” week in February versus a year before, pre-pandemic under “Normal” circumstances.

In the chart above, we show a side-by-side comparison of bible app usage per day during the last week of February in 2020 versus 2021. This corresponds to comparing the “Normal” pre-pandemic section of the previous chart versus the most recent “New Normal” time period. On the left, in dark blue, we show last year’s “Normal” pre-pandemic levels. And on the right, in light blue, we compare the most recent “New Normal” during which in-person worship is restricted.

Compared to pre-pandemic levels, America’s practice of faith on mobile has declined by an average of 17% across all days of the week. People aren’t using their bible app as much as before COVID-19, except on Monday, when usage is stable. On Sundays, the Christian holy day, usage of bible apps tumbled by 49%. We think this is the result of fewer people needing their app to follow along with sermons during worship service, as these are now mostly being held on streaming services as opposed to in-person.

This indicates that many Americans have put their digital bible back on the shelf in the New Normal. And that when religious ceremonies are no longer held in-person with the rest of the community, many people no longer read the bible on their smartphone during Sunday service. This does not necessarily mean that people stopped engaging with their faith altogether, as they could instead be streaming worship services on Sundays.

Summary: Our Shifting Needs During Crises

Through the COVID-19 crisis, and the resulting shift from in-person to virtual worship, we’ve seen Americans’ worship habits on mobile change considerably.
The “digital awakening” of congregations initially led to a surge in digital bible reading, with usage of bible apps doubling within a month. This was likely the result of a growing need to practice faith to help cope with the stress of the pandemic, as survey data suggests.
This unprecedented rise in practicing faith on smartphones subsequently tapered down. With 72% of regular worshippers watching religious services virtually during this time, and many experiencing it for the first time, we think many people left mobile bible apps behind in favor of streaming services, which helped bring a stronger sense of community via video and real-time interactions.
Faith on mobile suffered its largest loss of usage (49% drop compared to pre-pandemic levels) on Sundays, when digital bibles were used to follow along with sermons during worship services. This could suggest that attending congregations in-person with the rest of the community helps keep Americans’ mobile bible reading habits stronger.

Because COVID-19 is such an unusual and extended crisis, there may be more long-lasting changes in people’s religious behaviors to come. We’ll continue to update you on important shifts in mobile behavior during the pandemic. For the latest reports, subscribe to the Flurry Analytics’ blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn

Smartphone Growth Surges in Middle East by 23%

LisaMoshfegh — Wed, 10 Mar 2021 06:23:22 +0000

Smartphone Growth Surges in Middle East by 23%

By Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Tue, 03/09/2021 - 22:23

2021-03-10

Tags

Mobile Insights

Samsung

Apple

The Middle East is an ethnically and culturally diverse trans-continental region which includes countries in Western Asia, as well as Egypt and Turkey. The most populous countries in the Middle East are Egypt, Iran and Turkey, while Saudi Arabia has the largest area. In this report, we review the smartphone market in the Middle East in order to better understand growth opportunities and consumer preferences in the region.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing insights from 2 billion devices per month. Let’s begin by reviewing the distribution of mobile devices across the Middle East by country.

In the chart above, we list each country in the Middle East by its percentage of active smartphone users as of January 2021. Unfortunately, due to political constraints, we are unable to report on app usage from Iran and Syria. Iran is one of the larger countries in the region and its population makes up 21% of the total population in the Middle East. According to a recent report from Statista, Iran has the largest number of smartphone users in the region, which means that, if included, Iran would likely top this list.

Turkey is the top country on our list in terms of the smartphone users in the Middle East region. Turkey accounts for 28% of smartphone users and 26% of the region's population, followed by Egypt (23% of smartphone users, 29% of population) and Saudi Arabia (14% of smartphone users, 10% of population).

Next, let’s review the countries experiencing the largest smartphone growth year-over-year.

As seen in the chart above, the Middle East region saw a strong increase in device activations, growing on average 23% year-over-year. This growth was primarily driven by the larger markets such as Iraq and Egypt that continued to grow despite their huge existing user base. Among the reasons growth is so high across these countries is low existing smartphone penetration, which stands at 20%, and 28% for Iraq and Egypt respectively. Their relative market sizes and growth rates provide lucrative opportunities for app developers to monetize and grow their own user bases. Declines seen for UAE and Qatar in mobile device activations are likely due to their very high smartphone penetration rates of 81% and 75% respectively, meaning a limited scope for growth.

Next, let’s review the platform preference in the Middle East.

In the chart above, we list each country by its share of Android devices in blue compared to iOS devices in gray. While the average Android share in the Middle East is 78%, it varies considerably amongst different countries. The countries with the highest GDP per capita, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE, have the lowest percentage of Android penetration, ranging from 57% to 66%, and therefore a high share of iOS users. Yemen with the highest share of Android devices (98%) also happens to have the lowest GDP per capita in the region and very low share of iOS users. This wide variation speaks to the diversity within the Middle East which app developers should keep in mind as they vie for success in these markets.

Next, let’s take a look at market share by smartphone manufacturers in the Middle East.

In the chart above, we list the top 5 smartphone manufacturers in the Middle East as of January 2021. We then combine the remaining manufacturers into “Others,” represented by the gray slice of the pie. Samsung is the clear leader controlling 39% of all smartphones in the Middle Eastern market, followed by Huawei at 18%, Apple at 18%, Xiaomi at 6%, and OPPO at 4%. From 2020 to 2021, Samsung lost 2 percentage points, Apple lost 4 percentage points, whereas Huawei remained flat and Xiaomi and OPPO gained 3 percentage points and 1 percentage points respectively. In the ever-evolving smartphone market, Chinese manufacturers are gaining popularity in the Middle East at the expense of global behemoths, Samsung and Apple.

Finally, let’s review the most popular device models in the Middle East.

In the chart above, we list the 10 most popular smartphone devices in the Middle East as of January 2021 by the number of active devices in the market. We list Samsung models in green, Apple models in orange, and Huawei models in purple. Huawei’s Y9 Prime takes the top spot with 1.9% of market share, followed by Samsung’s Galaxy On Nxt and Apple’s iPhone 11. Apple smartphones feature 5 of the top 10 spots, followed by Samsung and Huawei taking the remaining 3 and 2 spots respectively. Combined, these top 10 devices account for only 15% of the region’s total market share, further demonstrating the fragmented smartphone market in the region.

With a 23% average growth rate of new smartphone activations, the Middle East is one of the world’s fastest growing regions in terms of smartphone growth. Considering low smartphone penetration rates in several of the region’s countries, we expect growth to continue and we imagine app developers will follow. Make sure you follow us on the Flurry Blog and on Twitter and LinkedIn for more mobile industry insights.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

Mobile Photo & Video Apps Get Some Valentine’s Day Love

edanilo — Fri, 19 Feb 2021 02:09:47 +0000

Mobile Photo & Video Apps Get Some Valentine’s Day Love

By Estelle Laziuk, Flurry Analyst

edanilo Thu, 02/18/2021 - 18:09

2021-02-18

Tags

Mobile Insights

Holiday Mobile Insights

App Category Insights

With the first Valentine's Day during COVID-19 in the books, we analyzed how Americans used mobile applications this year to celebrate their relationships. In this report, we reveal the top behavioral shifts on Valentine’s Day by analyzing the app categories that saw the largest growth in usage.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing aggregated insights across more than 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, Flurry measured mobile app usage in the United States using the number of app sessions. We set January 31, the most recent Sunday prior to Valentine’s Day, excluding the Super Bowl, as the baseline and then compared growth against that baseline for each category. Note that we excluded the Social category from our analysis, including dating apps, because of the unusual concentration of usage in just a handful of properties, which Flurry does not measure.

Let’s find out which app categories gained the most usage during Valentine’s Day.

In the chart above, we show a side-by-side comparison of indexed mobile app sessions on Valentine’s Day in blue versus on a typical Sunday in black, for the four app categories that experienced the most growth on Valentine's Day.

The top spot goes to the Photo & Video app category, which grew by 73% on Valentine’s Day compared to a typical Sunday. We speculate that this surge is coming from many photo and video editor apps offering special frames, filters and stickers for Valentine’s Day. Additionally, photo and video apps were likely used more than usual to capture special moments and memories. This 73% jump is impressive for the Photo & Video category, which typically experiences lesser growth during other holiday periods. For instance, this category only increased by 42% last year during Valentine’s Day, and grew by 51% on New Year’s Eve compared to a typical Thursday in December. Growth may have been stronger this year on Valentine’s Day due to social distancing, leaving more quiet time for couples.

The Restaurant app category saw the second largest growth in usage, with a 35% increase. With the reopening of restaurants in the majority of U.S. states, growth in Restaurant app usage outpaced that of Take-out, up by 11%, and Recipe, down by 3%. This means that more people used their phone on Valentine’s Day to find nearby dining locations than to order food or cook a meal at home. It also indicates that on Valentine’s Day, the Restaurant category rebounded from its 36% drop earlier in the pandemic, when most restaurants were still closed.

Lastly, the Music app category experienced a 9% rise in usage on Valentine’s Day, indicating that people played more music than usual on their phone to celebrate and make this day special.

Valentine’s Day this year drove a significant spike in Photo & Video app activity. Restaurant, Take-out, and Music also saw a substantial growth in usage. This unusual uptake in mobile activity, likely amplified by the pandemic, reflects how special this celebration is for many Americans. Stay tuned for more reports covering shifts in mobile app behavior during upcoming holiday events. For the latest reports, subscribe to the Flurry Analytics blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.