Is iPhone the next American Idol?

October 11, 2010
|
Peter Farago
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On October 5, 2009, CBS canceled "Guiding Light," the longest running television drama in history, which began in 1952. Last month, CBS aired the last episode of "As the World Turns," the Proctor & Gamble production that has been running for more than 50 years.  Ad dollars allocated to soaps fell nearly 30 percent from 2005 to 2009, and then fell another 20 percent in the first half of 2010.

Since the 90s, the television industry has been reeling from the disruptive forces of the Internet and DVRs.  No longer could the industry depend on a captive audience to which it had grown so accustomed.   While the industry has adapted its programming with a glut of cheaper, but profitable competition reality shows and edgier dramas to reclaim a loyal audience, a new entertainment force is once again driving disruption: the iPhone.  The chart below illustrates how iOS social games, a popular form of gaming mixed with social networking, stack up against primetime TV viewership.


Flurry iOSsocialGames vs PrimeTimeTV resized 600
Social games on iPhone, iPad and iPod touch devices are competing for television viewers.  In fact, these apps, tracked on the Flurry network alone, comprise of a daily audience of more than 19 million who spend over 22 minutes per day using these apps.  Treated as a consumer audience, its size and reach rank somewhere between NBC’s Sunday Night Football and ABC’s Dancing with the Stars, and only 4 million viewers shy from beating the number one prime-time show on television, FOX’s American Idol

However, Flurry is only seeing part of the picture.  With Flurry integrated into more than 50,000 apps, out of Apple’s stated total of 250,000 apps, Flurry has about 20% penetration.  Additionally, since this analysis focuses on only two categories of applications, social games and social networking apps, it’s clear that iOS devices are already ahead of prime time television’s hottest shows.

Given that the app store only launched in July 2008, these figures are staggering.  Mass consumption of applications on mobile devices has exploded in record time.   Also noteworthy is that the enormous audience these applications reach takes place every day, 365 days a year.  Compared to a top television series, which airs 22 episodes a season, advertisers can reach a larger consumer audience through applications 15 times more frequently.

There are a lot of conclusions that can be drawn from this phenomenal shift in audience behavior. The most obvious is the impact on the advertisement industry, which has relied on the reach generated by its prime time television slot for years.  This season, while Americon Idol is busy shuffling judges, the people have voted: iOS social games are as prime time as prime time television.  Enjoy the show!

On October 5, 2009, CBS canceled “Guiding Light,” the longest running television drama in history, which began in 1952.  Last month, CBS aired the last episode of “As the World Turns,” the Proctor & Gamble production that has been running for more than 50 years.  Ad dollars allocated to soaps fell nearly 30 percent from 2005 to 2009, and then fell another 20 percent in the first half of 2010.

Since the 90s, the television industry has been reeling from the disruptive forces of the Internet and DVRs.  No longer could the industry depend on a captive audience to which it had grown so accustomed.   While the industry has adapted its programming with a glut of cheaper, but profitable competition reality shows and edgier dramas to reclaim a loyal audience, a new entertainment force is once again driving disruption: the iPhone.  The chart below illustrates how iOS social games, a popular form of gaming mixed with social networking, stack up against primetime TV viewership.

Is iPhone the next American Idol?